1.Discuss the differences between uncertainty, probability and likelihood.
2.How does uncertainty differ from risk?
3.Explain the use data at its sources in probability analysis and assessment.
Critical Thinking Exercise
Watch the video linked below:
The presenter suggests that when assessing a probability and resulting consequences, adjustments to degrees of vulnerability and exposure are strategies for dealing with everyday life uncertainties.
4. Provide descriptions of a situation where circumstances placed you in a position of a likely consequence, and the actions you took to reduce your exposure and vulnerability. Include any data sources influencing the logic and intuition used in making your decision.Feel free to employ the example below to illustrate your actions to reduce exposure and vulnerability to present threats.
You are going to a baseball game hoping to enjoy an afternoon of America’s pastime. It is mid-August, the temperature is hovering around 100 degrees and the weather forecast predicts a 70% change of a brief, but strong, thunderstorm.
Assessment and Action:
Evaluating the situation, attending the ball game will place you at risk to the natural elements of rain and sun. You are vulnerable as a target and exposed to the threats of nature and the consequences of getting wet and or sunburned.
Your data source, the weather forecast, predicts both a high probability of rain and high temperatures.Your experiences confirm your confidence reliability of the forecast.Your decision: take an umbrella to the ball game, reducing both your vulnerability and exposure to the threats.